The report by Chapel Hill Denham titled “Dangote Refinery can provide the needed breather for Nigeria’s public finances” revealed that the Dangote refinery, when completed, will be the largest in Africa, surpassing the Skikda refinery in Algeria (366kb/d capacity) and Nigeria’s current largest refinery, the Port Harcourt Refinery (210kb/d capacity).
According to the report, the refinery will offer a ray of hope amid the recent fuel crises, which have been made worse by the FGN’s failure to refine even a drop of crude oil locally, Nairametrics reported.
Chapel Hill Denham explained that Nigeria is still largely dependent on imported fuel despite having four refineries with a combined capacity of 445 kb/d. However, at full operation, the Dangote refinery is expected to generate up to 66 million litres of PMS, ATK, AGO, HHK, slurry, and other petroleum products with a capability to refine 650 kb/d of crude.
“We believe change is imminent, with the Dangote Refinery looking to begin operation towards the twilight of 2023. If fully utilised, we believe the refinery can redefine Nigeria’s domestic production of white products(petrol, Automotive Gasoline Oil, AGO and Dual Purpose Kerosene, DPK) and potentially turn the country into a net exporter.” the report added.
Despite the great expectation that the refinery will somehow curb Nigeria’s petrol import and scarcity crises and boost economic growth, economic experts in the country remain conservative about the refinery’s prospects.
According to economists at Business Day, the estimates of the economic impact if the refinery starts this year will produce only 10 per cent of its capacity, and 20 per cent next year. It will only achieve full capacity after 2025, and under these assumptions, the refinery’s addition to growth measured by GDP is more likely to be 0.1 and 0.4 per cent in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
On his part, the President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said that the refinery can meet 100 per cent of the Nigerian requirement for all liquid products such as gasoline, diesel, kerosene and aviation jet. It will also have a surplus of each of these products for export.
He disclosed that after completion of all the projects, it would have the capacity to generate over 280 000 direct and indirect jobs.
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